A dire shortage of clinical care workers in the nursing home sector along with slower growth in the number of nursing care beds is leading to added concerns over access issues for long-term care in certain states in the coming decades.
In Wisconsin, a recent study issued at the end of September by Forward Analytics, a state-based policy research organization, highlights a looming long-term care crisis, with a need for 10,000 additional workers by 2040 as the majority of baby boomers turn 75.
The projection is related to a shift in the type of services and the decline of licensed nursing home beds, which have been slashed to half over the last two decades.
From 2000 to 2023, the number of licensed nursing beds in the state plummeted from 43,551 to 26,069, necessitating an increase of approximately 33,000 total beds by 2030 to meet the growing demand.
At the same time, the number of beds in assisted living facilities rose from 67,248 to over 80,000 in 2023.
“Current trends indicate nursing home beds would decline to less than 8,000 despite the population explosion. That number is probably far too low for a projected senior population of more than 750,000,” the report notes.
And even if Wisconsin added more facilities, a great challenge remains staffing.
“[It] may be even more difficult to staff these facilities given Wisconsin’s worker shortage. If care ratios remain unchanged, these facilities would need an additional 9,900 registered nurses, CNAs, and home health/personal care aides by 2030,” the report said.
Data from the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development show that these occupations are projected to increase by 12,800 from 2022 to 2030. This means that this sector will require approximately 75% of the anticipated growth, even though it employed only 20% of those occupations in 2023, the report stated.
Case for South Carolina
Meanwhile, a report from the 2024 South Carolina Health Plan indicates a significant need for additional nursing home beds in the state’s counties to accommodate its aging population.
Dave Fiorini, a senior consultant with the S.C. Department of Public Health, emphasized that the state faces a broader need for nursing home beds, particularly in more densely populated areas.
“Across the state, we’re showing a need of 13,000-plus beds. Of course, in your most populous counties like Charleston and Beaufort, we’re showing need in the thousands. There is a need for expanding the beds,” Fiorini told the Times and Democrat.
The State Health Plan is published as a tool used in helping address the long-term care needs of each county, Fiorini said.
“We actually publish this for the public to take the initiative, but we encourage people or facilities that if they want to increase their beds and there’s a need, to go ahead and do that. It’s ultimately up to them because they have other obligations, as well, that they would need to fulfill such as financial obligations,” Fiorini said.
Meanwhile, State Rep. Gilda Cobb-Hunter highlighted the link between Medicaid funding and nursing home accessibility, arguing that the state’s failure to expand Medicaid hampers long-term care options, especially in rural areas. She cited an economic analysis suggesting that Medicaid expansion could provide coverage for over 360,000 residents, create nearly 20,000 jobs, and generate significant economic growth. Cobb-Hunter advocated for collaborative public policies that prioritize the health care needs of all South Carolinians.
