SNF Occupancy Hits Highest Level Since April 2020, But Headwinds Temper Expectations

Skilled nursing has seen its highest occupancy level since April 2020, increasing 94 basis points to end February at 76.7%.

That’s according to NIC MAP Data Service, powered by NIC MAP Vision. Authors of the monthly report suggest the demand for skilled nursing properties is recovering despite challenges encountered by staffing shortages and the delta and omicron variants.

More recently, nursing home move-ins have increased dramatically from 21% to 63% in April, according to a survey of executives published by the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC). About one-half of respondents said their lead volume reached pre-pandemic levels.

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Still, expectations for occupancy recovery have “tempered” in the past year, NIC Senior Principal Lana Peck said in published survey insights. Half of respondents said recovery to pre-pandemic levels will happen in 2023 – the majority of respondents said recovery is expected in the first half of that year.

Labor headwinds still intense

The most recent NIC executive survey was conducted between April 4 and May 1 and includes responses from owners and executives of 65 senior housing and skilled nursing operators of varying sizes; about one-quarter of respondents during this time said they have more than 20% of positions unfilled, a reflection of the continuing staffing crisis.

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Overwhelmingly, executive insight respondents said increasing wages was the most effective method of attracting new staff at 70%, with flexible schedules and hiring bonuses making up 9% and 6% of answers, respectively.

Answers aren’t too far off from those collected during NIC’s executive survey between June 14 and July 11 last year – 63% said increasing wages was the best way to recruit staff, followed by 10% that went with flexible schedules and 6% again said hiring bonuses.

Stepping away from nursing care

About one in five executives in the post-acute care space are planning to decrease skilled nursing care in the next year, according to the survey conducted by NIC, while about one-half of leaders plan to expand their reach into independent living during the same time period.

When asked about recruiting non-caregiving staff, besides increasing wages, handing out bonuses and making schedules flexible, other alternate ways listed by executives included 25 cent raises each quarter, or a “quarter for quarter raise.”

Leaders have even done direct in-person recruiting at nearby businesses, tested out daily pay as an incentive to staff and provided opportunities to grow with educational incentives, along with social media posts and scheduling multiple orientation sessions per week.

Managed Medicare on the rise

As for facility revenue mix, the NIC MAP data report indicates a general increase in Medicare revenue – with managed Medicare being the main driver – while Medicaid revenue dropped from January to February.

Managed Medicare revenue mix increased by 83 basis points in February to end at 11.4% – this is the highest this statistic has been since March 2019.

“This increase, along with improving overall occupancy and rising managed Medicare patient day mix, suggests higher demand from managed Medicare beneficiaries for skilled nursing care,” NIC Map Vision authors said.

Revenue mix for managed Medicare has increased three months in a row, and patient day mix has trended upward during that same timeframe, according to NIC MAP Vision data.

Managed Medicare revenue per patient day (RPPD) increased to $450 in February, suggesting higher acuity patient care that month, authors said, since RPPD increased when Covid cases were declining.

Skilled mix overall increased 41 basis points to end February at 28.9%, authors said.

Medicaid patient day mix decreased for the second month in a row, authors noted, falling 33 basis points to close out February at 63.3%.

“Some of the explanation of this yearly decline in Medicaid patient days is due to the spike in omicron cases in January as operators moved residents from Medicaid to Medicare days as they required isolation and higher skilled care,” according to NIC MAP Vision data authors.

NIC MAP Vision data was collected from 25 contributors across 46 states – the number of skilled nursing properties represented increased by one between January and February, to 1,237.

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