Investors appear to be less interested in the skilled nursing space, while other post-acute care settings like assisted living and independent living are increasingly sought after.
Investors looking for SNF deals dropped drastically year-over-year in the last quarter of 2023, according to a seniors housing and care survey released by commercial real estate and investment firm, JLL.
The percentage of investors looking for skilled nursing opportunities decreased from 26% in the fourth financial quarter of 2022, to 14% in Q4 2023, the JLL survey suggests.
Other survey highlights show transaction volumes in the seniors housing and nursing care sector were “down considerably” from peak levels as real estate deals became pressured by higher interest rates.
Transaction activity in the first three quarters of 2023 was down 33% on prior year levels, for both seniors housing and nursing care. The share of portfolio transactions decreased amid lower debt market liquidity for transactions of scale. Portfolios accounted for 35% of activity in Q4 2023, according to the survey.
In contrast to SNF investment for 4Q of 2023, assisted living deals were of greater interest to investors between Q4 2022 and Q4 2023, jumping from 31% to 41%, respectively. Meanwhile, investor interest in independent living increased by 7% for the same time period.
Active adult, memory care and CCRC interest all saw decreased investor interest, according to the JLL survey.
The JLL Investor Survey gathered data from transaction professionals who specialize in the seniors housing and care space. The sample set for this survey was over 100 respondents. “The intention of this survey is to garner insights into current market sentiment from industry leaders and to provide expectations for the year ahead,” the JLL survey notes.
The largest category of survey respondents was represented by debt providers, at 34%. Investment sales professionals represented the second-largest share of respondents at 23%, and private equity firms and institutional investors accounted for the next-largest share of responses, both at 13%.
JLL delved into capitalization rates among care settings too – going-concern cap rates and absolute net leased cap rates for skilled nursing was most commonly between 200 and 250 basis points (bps).
Overall, cap rates increased amid higher lending costs, according to the survey.
Data from LevinPro LTC supports survey responses, with Q3 2023 marking the lowest quarterly spending on senior housing and care acquisitions in the last decade.
“Sentiment is generally forming that commercial real estate markets are approaching their bottom, and new green shoots are emerging, with the 10-year Treasury having declined by approximately 100 bps from late October 2023 to early January 2024,” JLL researchers said. “This is expected to lead to a gradual improvement in investor sentiment.”
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