Nursing home and continuing care retirement community (CCRC) spending through 2033 is expected to jump up to $385.9 billion, compared to $192.9 billion in 2022.
That’s a steady increase projected by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group.
Moreover, authors of the national health expenditure projections study said the estimates don’t take the proposed reconciliation budget into account, which has yet to be approved by Congress.
“Our projections are current law and so no, there’s nothing in our projections related to that proposed legislation,” Sean Keehan, senior economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary and co-author of the study, said in a media briefing on Wednesday. “We covered the finalized administrative actions up through March 25 of this year.”
Nursing homes and CCRCs are expected to spend $228.8 billion in 2024 once all data comes in, followed by $247.1 billion in 2025, $278.4 billion in 2027, and then $385.9 billion in 2033.
This steady climb is reflected in other health care settings too, with home health care spending expected to increase from $160.5 billion in 2024 to $317.3 billion in 2033.
Average annual growth for nursing homes and CCRCs, on the other hand, is expected to diminish between 2024 and 2033.
The study found that growth for these care settings was 3.5% in 2022, then shot up to 9.5% in 2023, only to decline from there.
In 2024, annual nursing home growth is expected to be 8.3%, then 8% in 2025, followed by 6.2% between 2026 and 2027, and then 5.6% between 2028 and 2033, according to the Actuary’s study.
Overall, national health expenditure projections through 2033 are expected to grow as a share of the gross domestic product (GDP), despite insurance coverage declines, the study’s authors said. In fact, national health care expenditure growth is expected to outpace GDP growth, resulting in a health share of GDP reaching about 20.3% by 2033.
“This largely reflects sustained high growth in the use of health care services and goods after the muted growth that was observed during the COVID-19 pandemic,” authors said in the study.
