Following President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race, leaders in the nursing home space say there likely won’t be any change to the federal minimum staffing mandate or lawsuit given an ongoing strong connection with unions.

Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to run in his place. On Monday, Harris began her 106-day sprint toward election day.

As with President Biden, SEIU is a stalwart supporter of Harris and was one of the first organizations to support her for the Democratic nomination over the weekend, said Mark Reagan, managing shareholder at law firm Hooper Lundy & Bookman.

“I don’t think that there will likely be any change to the staffing mandate or the lawsuit based upon the support of the mandate by organized labor,” he said.

In terms of other areas of focus, Reagan said it’s possible that fraud and abuse issues could take priority, given her service as the California Attorney General. But, Reagan doesn’t expect an overall change in policy from the current administration.

Linda Couch, senior vice president of policy and advocacy for LeadingAge, said the association stands “willing and eager” to work with any administration to address critical issues plaguing nursing home residents and their families.

Some of the challenges, of course, include the ongoing workforce shortages throughout the aging services sector, she said.

The American Health Care Association and National Center for Assisted Living (AHCA/NCAL) said much of the same. Incoming AHCA/NCAL President and CEO Clif Porter said he hopes to work with the next administration, no matter the outcome.

“If we truly want to improve America’s nursing homes, we need policymakers to prioritize investing in our caregivers and rationalizing our regulatory environment,” Porter said in a statement. “Together, we should focus on meaningful solutions that can strengthen delivering the quality of care and services that our nation’s seniors deserve.”

Porter currently serves as senior vice president of government relations for the association.

It has been anticipated as early as April of this year that the nursing home industry, along with other settings in long-term care, will be a central campaign focus for presidential candidates, according to Bob Kramer, founder and fellow at Nexus Insights, and co-founder, former CEO and now a strategic advisor at the National Investment Center for Senior Housing and Care (NIC).

He still expects the 2024 election to be about the personalities of each candidate, despite the shakeup with Democratic contenders.

“With former President Trump as the Republican candidate, the 2024 presidential campaign will continue to be about personalities, not issues, despite Kamala Harris likely replacing Biden as the Democratic Party’s standard bearer,” he said.

Regardless of the presidential election’s outcome, the Chevron precedent is a key factor for the future of the staffing mandate and lawsuit seeking to block the mandate, added Kramer.

And long-term care also promises to remain a hot button issue for candidates. One reason is growth of the older population just as the Medicare trust fund is projected to show a deficit starting around 2026 when the oldest of baby boomers will turn 80.

In the 2028 election cycle, social security will be only a few years away from running a deficit, Kramer added. This is complicated by the fact that millennials and Gen Xers – who will be taking care of their parents’ long-term care needs – will be heavily indebted, experts said.

The issue of long-term care access will gain national traction when it’s not seen as a low income issue, but rather a middle class issue, he said. Rising personal debt is also an issue that will impact long-term care, and is, therefore, likely to push long-term care to center stage in upcoming election cycles.