Nursing Home Leaders Not Likely to See Staffing Levels Recover Until 2026

Nursing home leaders looking to return to pre-pandemic staffing levels may have to wait at least four years should the industry maintain its modest pace of recovery.

That’s according to a new report released Monday by the American Health Care Association and National Center for Assisted Living (AHCA/NCAL).

Based on the nursing home sector’s average job gains over the last four months — an increase of approximately 4,600 jobs per month — the model shows that February 2020 workforce levels may not return until 2026.

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AHCA/NCAL President and CEO Mark Parkinson called on federal and state policymakers to support policies that aid the recruitment and retention of nursing home caregivers.

“Our caregivers, who are working themselves ragged, and our growing elderly population can’t afford to wait another four years,” he said in a statement. “Rebuilding the long term care workforce will not happen by decree. Nursing homes cannot solve this labor crisis on their own.”

In February 2020, the nursing home industry comprised 1,584,800 workers, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data compiled by AHCA/NCAL.

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Most recently, BLS data showed industry job gains of 3,700 in July, landing at 1,361,100 total jobs in July.

Health care overall added 70,000 additional jobs in July. Other sectors such as hospitals, physicians’ offices and outpatient care centers have already reached or surpassed pre-pandemic staffing levels, according to BLS data.

The nursing home workforce is at levels not seen since 1993, according to the report.

These staffing challenges come at a time when the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is working on proposed minimum staffing requirements for the industry.

After soliciting feedback through a request for information (RFI) on the topic back in April as part of the proposed rule, CMS received more than 3,000 comments on the issue.

Overall, the government agency received “mixed feedback” on establishing minimum staffing requirements for long-term care facilities, CMS Policy Analyst Cameron Ingram said during a call held earlier this month.

While there were clear differences of opinion among stakeholders regarding the implementation of minimum staffing requirements, Ingram said CMS’s goal is to use this information, along with its staffing study, “to strike a balance between the positions” and ensure safe and quality care for residents.

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