Occupancy Recovery May Not Come Until 2023, a Growing Number of Senior Care Executives Say

Operators are less optimistic that occupancy will return to pre-pandemic levels by 2022, with more than one-quarter, or 26%, now anticipating recovery in 2023.

The latest National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC) executive survey saw leadership outlook change compared to its September survey – earlier in the year, four out of five participants anticipated recovery in 2021 or 2022.

Now, nine in 10 participants expect recovery in 2022 or later. Owners and executives from 72 operators of varying sizes participated in the survey; respondents operate both skilled nursing and seniors housing facilities. 

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The NIC survey gained some insights on staffing as well, asking executives questions tied to retention, recruiting and turnover.

One out of every five operators said their use of agency staff increased by 100%, while more than half indicated a 50% jump in usage.

Nearly 77% of participants in the latest NIC executive survey currently use staffing agencies. Owners and executives from 72 operators participated in the 35th iteration of the survey.

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Coupled with NIC’s insights on agency use, the survey found just under half of operators are now experiencing staffing shortages, an increase from a third in mid-March, while turnover surged 17% from June.

Attracting community and caregiving staff continues to be the biggest challenge to operators at this point in the pandemic, outpacing staff turnover, low occupancy, cash balance and liquidity, and too much competition.

NIC said it routinely asks operators to rank their biggest challenges with each executive survey. Since August, attracting staff was top on the list; 17% more participants said turnover was an issue in this survey compared to mid-June.

Occupancy and lead volumes took a positive turn – nearly one-half of survey participants said they saw an increase in occupancy, up 9% from the last survey. Lead volumes reached pre-pandemic levels with an increase of 16% since April.

Move-in pace continues to accelerate as well, according to the survey, a trend considered to be need-based rather than choice-based.

“Fewer organizations with nursing care beds reported a deceleration in the pace of move-ins since the summer when the delta variant of the COVID-19 virus was in broad circulation,” NIC Senior Principal Lana Peck said in a note on the survey findings.

Smaller operators (one to 10 facilities) made up 63% of respondents, followed by mid-size (11 to 25 properties) at 18% and larger operators (26 or more properties) at 19%. About 54% of surveyees are for-profit operators, 33% represent nonprofits and 13% operate both.

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