Some skilled nursing operators and industry advocates expected occupancy recovery from COVID-19 to occur by the end of 2021, but with the onset of the delta variant and staffing shortages worsening, the newest data shows that occupancy recovery won’t occur until early 2022 at the earliest.
For Milwaukie, Ore.-based Marquis Companies, occupancy recovery delays have made it difficult to plan ahead.
“I often use the analogy of the whole COVID experience as if you’re running a race and you don’t know where the finish line is,” Phil Fogg Jr., president and CEO of Marquis, told Skilled Nursing News. “We’ve constantly had to reset the recovery dates. In March of 2020 I thought I’d be out of it in August of 2020 and it all changed.”
When the vaccines came out, Fogg felt that this August and September, when people went back to work and kids went back to school, recovery would occur.
“But the workforce challenges and delta have stopped that,” he said.
Skilled nursing occupancy, once at 84.7% pre-COVID, dropped to 68.4% at its lowest during the pandemic in January, but had been steadily recovering each month as COVID-19 vaccinations were more widely distributed, according to research from professional services firm CliftonLarsonAllen.
That recovery appears to have stagnated — as American Health Care Association President and CEO Mark Parkinson indicated to Skilled Nursing News earlier this month — hitting 73.5% on Sept. 12 after reaching 73% at the end of June, CLA research shows.
NIC MAP data released last month by NIC MAP Vision differs slightly from CLA’s but both indicate that occupancy recovery has been impacted by the emergence of delta.
“It’s all guesses now,” Fogg said. “If we can see the delta variant dissipate, I think December is going to feel like April of last year with COVID.”
The emergence of delta cases, combined with staffing challenges, has put some developments on hold for Marquis.
“I think in January and February, you’re going to start to see workforce recovery that will enable occupancy recovery, but I will say that with projects in general it’s hard to prioritize right now given the crisis of workflows,” Fogg added. “It’s a logistical challenge.”
At Colavria Hospitality, which operates three SNFs in the Denver metro area, occupancy recovery has been slowest for its larger properties.
“There’s a 70-bed, 105-bed and 155-bed facility and the smaller buildings have been doing fine since August, September,” Colavria Hospitality CEO and President Mark Bedinger told SNN. “The larger building has really struggled. It was around 125 residents pre-COVID and is now a little over 100.”
He attributed some of the recovery to the fact that the 70-bed facility does more short-term rehab than the other two but admitted that it mostly comes down to staffing.
“It just has more beds to fill,” Bedinger said. “Honestly, worse than getting back census has been staffing. Even if I could fill the larger building tomorrow I wouldn’t be able to because I can’t find the staff.”
While Saint Paul Health Center — the 155-bed facility — hasn’t issued any admission holds, it has had to turn away admissions on a case-by-case basis.
“I would say [the impact of delta] has been minimal, but if staffing wasn’t an issue we might be feeling more of an impact but sometimes we can’t admit anyway,” he added. “We thought we were at the finish line in May and June and then delta came, and again the impact was not as severe but I guess it’s the fear of the unknown with COVID.”
He said combined occupancy of the three facilities is around 80% compared to the low 90’s pre-COVID. The 70-bed facility is nearly at capacity, however.
Census at C&G Healthcare Management, a Colorado operator with seven SNFs throughout the state, is down around 20% across all campuses, CEO Joyce Humiston told SNN.
Humiston said that while she does not think her facilities would be at full capacity, if not for the delta variant she may be seeing 85 to 90% census.
“We’ve seen [recovery] stop,” she said. “We were getting admissions but had to stop. It’s a battle, it’s a constant battle.”
Companies featured in this article:
American Health Care Association, Colavria Hospitality, Marquis Companies
